New Poll Shows Swiss Voters Set to Reject 10 Million Population Cap
The second SBC poll found 52 percent of respondents against the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative, compared to 45 percent in favor and 3 percent still undecided. Opposition has surged by five percentage points since the first survey conducted in early May, signaling a clear shift in public sentiment.
The initiative, championed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party, seeks to place a hard cap on immigration to ensure Switzerland's population does not breach the 10 million threshold — a figure the country, currently home to approximately 9.1 million people, could approach within decades at current growth rates.
Support remains firmly anchored within the Swiss People's Party base, while left-wing voters are overwhelmingly opposed. Notably, centrist voters have grown increasingly skeptical as the campaign has intensified, according to the poll.
The survey also revealed stark demographic fault lines. Opposition is markedly stronger among women, highly educated voters, urban dwellers, and French-speaking Swiss. Swiss citizens living abroad proved the most resistant of all, with 63 percent opposed and just 33 percent in favor.
Political scientist Lukas Golder of the gfs.bern institute, which conducted the survey, told Swissinfo that the initiative appears unlikely to replicate the success of Switzerland's landmark 2014 vote against mass immigration — a result that sent shockwaves across Europe at the time.
The poll also flagged a tightening battle over a separate proposal — changes to Switzerland's Civilian Service Act that would tighten access conditions to guarantee adequate army numbers. Support for stricter civilian service access slipped to 48 percent, while opposition climbed to 46 percent, leaving the two sides in a virtual dead heat ahead of the June 14 vote.
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