U.S. Fentanyl Deaths Correlated with Uptick in Fentanyl Seized at the Border, as Predicted by President Trump

Annual CDC “final” fentanyl deaths plotted for 1999 - 2023 reveals that the death rate recently plateaued.

The plot of illicit fentanyl deaths vs US Border Patrol seizures (lbs) Jan2019 – Dec2023 shows a positive relationship.

Breaking Bad Science Advisor Dr. Donna J. Nelson and Families Against Fentanyl Founder Jim Rauh Collaborate on Fentanyl Mitigation

NORMAN, OK, UNITED STATES, June 17, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Two national leaders in fentanyl activities are uniting to share statistics and warnings about illicit fentanyl. Dr. Donna J. Nelson shifted the focus of her creative activities from being the Science Advisor for the fictional Breaking Bad television show to mitigating the real-world illicit fentanyl crisis in the U.S. Jim Rauh founded Families Against Fentanyl after his oldest son died from a fentanyl poisoning.

Fentanyl is a synthetic, very potent opioid painkiller, which is safe when obtained from a medical professional, but often lethal when obtained on the street. A U.S. House Committee Report states that fentanyl precursors are shipped from China to Mexico, where they are assembled to create illicit fentanyl, which is smuggled across the border into the U.S. and laced into other drugs being sold on the street. A private CDC communication advised that the most accurate illicit fentanyl death rates are the “final” CDC data, which should be used to study fentanyl deaths when possible.

When fentanyl death rates, using CDC “final” data, numbered over 200 people per day in 2022 and 2023, the illicit fentanyl crisis received much attention from many organizations and people, including Donald Trump who, throughout the 2024 election, promised to end the fentanyl crisis. Annual CDC fentanyl deaths plotted 1999 - 2023 reveals that deaths have plateaued.

The amount of illicit fentanyl seized by the U.S. Border Patrol is related to the amount of fentanyl on the street. For the years Jan2019 – Dec2023, the monthly number of illicit fentanyl deaths reported by CDC as “final” data versus the monthly amount of illicit fentanyl seized by the U.S. border patrol are graphed. A general trend is apparent in the scatter plot for this comparison, which shows a positive correspondence. This means that as the amount of fentanyl seized at the border increases, the number of fentanyl poisonings increases. The plot of annual fentanyl death rates versus the amount of fentanyl seized at the U.S. border shows a line of slope with a very good correlation (0.70), which supports the idea that illicit fentanyl deaths are related to the amount of illicit fentanyl coming across the border. The positive correlation, between the amount seized and the number of deaths, has a correlation coefficient of 0.70, indicating a strong correlation. Such correlations are valuable because they can help prioritize solutions to difficult problems by giving weight to possible influences which can be quantified.

As the amount of illicit fentanyl seized at the border increases, so do the amount of illicit fentanyl which gets by the U.S. Border Patrol, the amount of illicit fentanyl on the street, and the number of deaths due to illicit fentanyl. This supports the concept that at the border, most of the fentanyl has been getting by the U.S. Border Patrol. The strong correlation supports the idea that President Trump’s platform while running for office and his subsequent efforts to reduce the amount of fentanyl coming across the borders, were logical for reducing the number of fentanyl deaths in the U.S. It is also logical that President Trump’s efforts to disrupt the stream of fentanyl starting materials from China to be used to synthesize fentanyl in the U.S., helped to reduce both the amount of illicit fentanyl in the U.S. and the deaths due to fentanyl poisoning. This gives additional quantitative support to previous intuition.

DR. DONNA J. NELSON
Dr. Donna J. Nelson
djnelson@ou.edu
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